Loot boxes have become one of the most controversial features in modern gaming. From FIFA Ultimate Team packs to Counter-Strike cases, these randomized virtual reward systems generate billions of dollars in revenue every year. But the central question remains: are loot boxes gambling?
The answer is far from straightforward. It depends on where you live, which legal framework you apply, and how you define "gambling" in the first place. In this comprehensive guide, we break down the legal debate, explore the psychological research, and examine what regulators around the world are doing about loot boxes in 2026.
What are loot boxes?
Loot boxes are virtual items in video games that contain a random selection of in-game rewards. Players can typically earn them through gameplay or purchase them with real money. The contents are determined by chance, meaning you never know exactly what you will get before opening one.
Common examples include:
- CS2 weapon cases containing random skins of varying rarity
- FIFA Ultimate Team packs with random player cards
- Overwatch 2 cosmetic loot boxes (now removed)
- Genshin Impact's gacha system with randomized characters and weapons
- Fortnite llamas in Save the World mode
The mechanic is simple: pay money, receive a random reward. And that simplicity is exactly what makes the gambling comparison so compelling.
The core legal question: what defines gambling?
Most legal definitions of gambling require three elements:
- Consideration — the player pays something of value (real money)
- Chance — the outcome is determined randomly
- Prize — the player receives something of value in return
Loot boxes clearly satisfy the first two criteria. You pay real money, and the outcome is random. The legal debate centers almost entirely on the third element: does a virtual item constitute a "prize" of value?
The industry argument
Game publishers argue that loot boxes are not gambling because:
- Virtual items have no real-world monetary value according to most terms of service
- Players always receive something (there is no "losing" outcome)
- Loot boxes are comparable to trading card packs or toy capsule machines
- The items are for entertainment purposes only
The Entertainment Software Association (ESA) has consistently maintained that loot boxes are a form of "surprise mechanics" rather than gambling, comparing them to Kinder Surprise eggs or baseball card packs.
The counter-argument
Critics and regulators counter that:
- Secondary markets (like Steam Marketplace) allow players to sell items for real money, giving virtual items tangible monetary value
- Third-party gambling sites use game skins as currency for betting
- The psychological mechanisms are identical to those used in slot machines
- Unlike trading cards, digital items cost nothing to produce, giving publishers unlimited supply
A landmark study from the Houston Law Review argued that if loot boxes "walk and talk like gambling," they likely violate existing gambling laws in states like Texas, regardless of the virtual nature of the prizes.
Country-by-country: how the world regulates loot boxes
The regulatory landscape is a patchwork of different approaches. For a deeper dive into how specific jurisdictions handle randomized purchases, see our guide on mystery box laws by country. Here is where major countries stand as of early 2026.
Belgium — banned
Belgium was the first country to take decisive action. In 2018, the Belgian Gaming Commission classified loot boxes as a form of gambling under Belgian law. Games like FIFA, Overwatch, and Counter-Strike were forced to remove paid loot boxes for Belgian players. Publishers who fail to comply face fines of up to €800,000 and even prison sentences for company officers.
The Netherlands — partially restricted
The Netherlands Gaming Authority (KSA) declared certain loot boxes illegal in 2018, specifically those whose contents could be traded or sold. However, a Dutch court later overturned the fine issued to EA for FIFA packs, ruling that the packs did not meet the full legal definition of gambling. The situation remains legally ambiguous.
United States — no federal law (yet)
There is currently no federal law in the United States that classifies loot boxes as gambling or bans them outright. However, significant legal action is underway:
- In February 2026, New York's Attorney General sued Valve Corporation, claiming that CS2 loot boxes constitute "quintessential gambling" under New York's Constitution and Penal Law.
- The FTC fined Cognosphere $20 million in January 2025 for misleading children about loot box odds in Genshin Impact.
- Several state-level bills have been introduced but none have become law at the federal level.
The New York lawsuit against Valve could be a watershed moment, potentially establishing legal precedent that classifies loot boxes as gambling in one of the country's largest states.
Brazil — minors protected
Brazil signed a new online child-safety law in 2025 that will ban loot box sales to minors under 18, effective March 2026. This represents one of the strongest age-based protections against loot boxes in the Americas.
United Kingdom — self-regulation
Despite a thorough investigation by the House of Lords in 2020, which recommended classifying loot boxes as gambling, the UK government ultimately opted for an industry-led approach. Game publishers are encouraged to disclose odds, implement spending limits, and restrict access for minors, but compliance is voluntary.
China — odds disclosure required
China requires all game publishers to disclose the exact odds of receiving each item from a loot box. This transparency requirement has been in place since 2017 and has influenced publishers globally to adopt similar practices.
Australia — under review
The Australian Parliament has investigated loot boxes multiple times, with committees recommending they be regulated as gambling. As of 2026, no binding legislation has been enacted, but the conversation continues.
The psychological evidence
Beyond legal definitions, a growing body of psychological research strengthens the connection between loot boxes and gambling.
Dopamine and variable reward schedules
Loot boxes use what psychologists call a variable ratio reinforcement schedule — the same mechanism that makes slot machines addictive. The unpredictable nature of rewards triggers dopamine release in the brain, creating a cycle of anticipation and reward that can become compulsive. We explore the psychology behind unboxing in greater detail in a dedicated article.
Research published by the University of York found a significant correlation between loot box spending and problem gambling behaviors. Players who spent more on loot boxes scored higher on problem gambling scales.
Impact on young people
A 2025 study from Norway's SPILLFORSK research center found that young people who purchase loot boxes are significantly more likely to:
- Participate in traditional gambling
- Experience higher rates of gambling problems
- Develop unhealthy spending habits around randomized purchases
Spain launched a national campaign in late 2025 after data revealed that players who purchase loot boxes are 4.5 times more likely to develop gambling problems than those who do not.
The "near miss" effect
Like slot machines, many loot box systems show players what they almost won. CS2's case opening animation, for example, scrolls through high-value items before landing on the actual reward. This "near miss" effect is a well-documented gambling mechanic that encourages continued spending.
Loot boxes vs. other randomized products
One of the most common defenses of loot boxes is the comparison to physical products with random contents.
Trading card packs
Pokemon cards, Magic: The Gathering boosters, and sports trading cards all involve paying for randomized contents. However, there are key differences:
- Physical cards have inherent scarcity (print runs are finite)
- Digital items can be generated infinitely at zero cost
- Physical products are regulated as consumer goods
- The secondary market for physical cards is well-established and legal
Mystery boxes
Mystery box online platforms like EmpireDrop offer a related but distinct experience. To better understand the differences between loot boxes and mystery boxes, it helps to compare their structures side by side. Unlike in-game loot boxes, mystery boxes typically contain physical products with real-world value. The key difference is transparency: reputable mystery box platforms disclose odds and ensure every box contains items worth a guaranteed minimum value. This makes them more comparable to a retail experience than a gambling mechanism.
Toy capsule machines
Gachapon machines and similar products are often cited as precedent. However, these typically cost small amounts (under $5) and contain items of relatively equal value, reducing the gambling-like "high stakes" element that characterizes many loot box systems.
The industry response
The gaming industry has made several concessions in response to regulatory pressure:
- Odds disclosure: Major publishers including EA, Blizzard, and Valve now disclose loot box odds in most markets
- Spending limits: Some games have introduced optional or mandatory spending caps
- Battle passes: Many games have shifted to battle pass systems that offer predetermined rewards for a fixed price
- Cosmetic-only items: Some publishers have committed to loot boxes containing only cosmetic items with no gameplay advantage
However, critics argue these measures are insufficient. Disclosing odds does not address the fundamental psychological mechanisms at play, and voluntary limits are easily bypassed.
What this means for gamers
If you are a gamer who buys loot boxes, here is what you should keep in mind:
- Set a budget: Decide how much you are willing to spend before you start, and stick to it
- Understand the odds: Check the disclosed drop rates. High-value items typically have odds well below 1%
- Recognize the psychology: If you feel compelled to keep opening boxes despite not wanting to, that is a warning sign
- Check your local laws: Depending on where you live, certain loot box systems may be restricted or regulated
- Consider alternatives: Battle passes, direct purchases, and marketplace trading often provide better value than loot boxes
The future of loot box regulation
The trend is clearly moving toward increased regulation. The 2026 New York lawsuit against Valve could set a major precedent in the United States. The EU is considering continent-wide legislation, and more countries are implementing protections for minors.
Industry insiders expect that within the next few years, we will see:
- Mandatory odds disclosure worldwide
- Age verification requirements for loot box purchases
- Spending limits, particularly for minors
- Possible classification as gambling in additional jurisdictions
The question is no longer really whether loot boxes share characteristics with gambling — the psychological and structural evidence is overwhelming. The question is how quickly and comprehensively regulators will act.
Conclusion
So, are loot boxes gambling? From a psychological perspective, they use identical mechanisms to slot machines and other gambling products. From a legal perspective, the answer varies dramatically depending on your jurisdiction. Belgium says yes. The United States says "not yet, but we are looking into it." The UK says "maybe, but we will let the industry sort it out."
What is clear is that the legal landscape is shifting rapidly. The combination of mounting research evidence, high-profile lawsuits, and increasing public awareness suggests that the era of unregulated loot boxes is coming to an end. Whether you are a gamer, a parent, or simply curious about the intersection of gaming and gambling law, this is a debate worth following closely.
For those who enjoy the thrill of randomized rewards but want a more transparent experience, platforms like mystery box online services offer a regulated alternative where you know the odds, the items have real-world value, and consumer protections are built into the experience.